Does anyone care ? IMO, nobody cares, except for the people trying to define the evolution of the coffee lifecycle in Australia (and the broader world market) or the journalists who struggle to understand the inner workings of an industry and just love the opportunity to latch onto catchy phrases. In it's simplest form, it is just a plain label that like so many descriptors across just about any industry, hobby, pastime, activity or interest will at times be inaccurately applied. Coffee in Australia - just like many other countries such as NZ, Scandinavia and pockets of the US - continues to advance at dramatic rates due to a single compelling reason - highly competitive markets. It never stands still, it fails to consolidate or stabilize - at least we cannot see any metrics that can accurately prove this point. When it comes to coffee, I struggle to imagine a set of key defining moments or "tipping points" where things dramatically changed in a short period of time. Many industries have fewer influential suppliers (the "leaders") that shape the operational state and future direction of their markets. With coffee, particularly in Australia at this time, that sort of market control or influence is not possible because of the lack of industry structure, fragmented distribution and the completely ludicrous 900 brands being sold in our domestic market (some of them imported). That number might shock people - but it's a fact - just ask the coffee bag suppliers ! The evolution of coffee has been a gradual and constant journey. The availability of Single Origin coffees, beans from estates or plantations, using profiles when you roast, etc. are all concepts that have been around long before the label of 3rd wave emerged or when 3rd wave moniker was stamped on a few of the Australian brands - for which we have active marketing initiatives to thank. Competitive forces shape our industry and in striving to achieve some level of differentiation or advantage (whether real or perceived), it always pushes us into new domains at every stage of the product lifecycle - sourcing a better raw material, more advanced roasting platforms, more precision when profiling - all these continuous improvements are aimed at converting the numerous variables into some form of constants that define what we know is a spectacularly wide spectrum called "a good coffee". At a macro level, having watched the coffee industry for a long time, it is hard to actually pinpoint when boundaries or "norms" actually shift. If we talk about waves, the more important back story in Australian coffee today is not whether a cafe or roaster is 3rd or even 4th wave, it's a more serious and worrying tale of saturated markets, fickle consumers and unfulfilled expectations at both the supply and demand sides. Not too long ago, it was possible for smart, hard working and disciplined folks to spend a small fortune building a cafe into a successful business. Put in the long, difficult hours to generate OK returns and after a period of time they could sell what they built and toiled for over many years as a going concern with the rewards of some goodwill. This may still apply to a very small number of coffee cafes, but that number is falling dramatically. These days, the uncomfortable trends I see are stressed cafe owners, unable to pay their bills, facing a current or future prospect that deals them a zero goodwill exit. The evolution to a state of zero goodwill businesses is the shocking headline that is not being reported. These people are worn down from the challenges posed by fickle consumer loyalty, constant labour issues and the ongoing barrage of new competition entering their ever decreasing share of the market. The "wave" discussion is simply a marketing and identity conversation - it does not address serious business challenges such margin erosion which is now the new retail battlefield across just about every industry and market.
